Mercados – Aries International (MAI)’s has presented its 30 Year’s forecasts Report for Spanish electricity market and capture prices for Solar PV & Wind.

The Q1 2021 Report shows a green landscape by 2050 with and renewables as main energy source. It also shows a moderate increasing trend showing that annual average prices in next 30 years are likely to be below 2018 levels. Likewise, the analysis clearly indicates that despite some concerns in the sector the so-called cannibalisation is not likely to occur in the following three decades although PV capture price spread shall fall significantly in the following years recovering by the middle of the period thanks to the introduction of storage systems.

The report also estimates that the market alone will only be able to reach around 71% of the of Renewables by 2030 somehow below the PNIEC’s 74% which will be reached by 2034.

The report is based on the outputs of MAI’s proprietary software ORDENA® alongside the shared vision of MAI’s team of regulatory and modelling experts about the forecasted trends of Iberian market key parameters. Likewise, it considers present regulations for the Spanish, French and Portuguese electricity systems.

The purpose of this report is to help developers, investors and lenders create their own view of the market forecast and thus become a useful resource for building up robust financial models. The report contains a) an overview of the Spanish Electricity Sector with special focus on the Wholesale Electricity Market, b) a description of ORDENA® Power Market Model, c) model assumptions, and d) results in three scenarios: Base, Low and High Cases.

ORDENA® (Power Market Model) is a software-based deterministic model that evaluates a big deal of key electricity system parameters such as (but not limited to) demand forecast, interconnection capacity and gas costs. The model simulates the behavior of the market participants with an aim to minimize the total system cost. ORDENA® optimizes capacity expansion plans and dispatching by means of last generation state-of-the-art mixed integer linear programming algorithms and by considering existing market rules and consistent restrictions thereof.